Fewer clashes, more IDPs in 2014: BNI report

There were fewer clashes between the Burma Army and the ethnic resistance armies, and still fewer instances of communal violence in 2014, but they were nevertheless sufficient enough reasons for more people being displaced, according to the latest report, still in manuscript form, by the Burma News International (BNI).

Sai Laik, far left, presenting his 2014 report on 7 May 2014 at the Forign Correspondents Club of Thailand (FCCT) in Bangkok. (Photo: Panglong.org)

BNI has already published the much acclaimed Deciphering Myanmar Peace Process (2013) and Deciphering Myanmar Peace Process (2014).

“This year, I’m the only one who’s doing the writing,” says Sai Leik, the principal author, in response to inquiry from government and activist circles. “Naturally, it takes more time.”

The BNI’s Myanmar Peace Monitoring Program (MPM) recorded a total of 242 clashes during the year:

Kachin State                       73    (68, according to Naypyitaw)
Kayah State                        _
Karen State                        13
Chin State                           _
Mon State                           3
Rakhine State                     3
Shan State                          148
Pegu/Bago Region              1
Tenasserim/Taninthayi        1

Compared to 2013, it was considerably less, according to Lt-Gen Myint Soe, Chief of the Bureau of Special Operations (BSO) #1 for northern Burma, who spoke at the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) meeting in March in Rangoon.

“From 2011-2013, we had  more than 1,450 clashes (483 clashes per year), with the KIO/KIA (Kachin Independence Organization/Army) alone,” he said. “But last year we had only 68.”

He however warned that if the NCA wasn’t signed soon, there were signs that the Kachin conflict was in danger of escalation. “We  are barely 3 months into 2015,” he said. “And yet we have already fought 32 clashes.”

Meanwhile, communal violence was at low intensity, in part due to inter-faith cooperation as in Mandalay, where they had formed the Peace Maintaining Committee. BNI refers to Internal Displacement Monitoring Center (IDMC) for the IDP figures last year. According to its July report, there were up to 642,600 IDPs, who were forced to flee their homes by armed conflict and inter-communal violence:

400,000       Shan, Kayah, Karen, Mon, Pegu and Tenasserim
98,000         Kachin, Northern Shan
140,000       Rakhine
5,000           Mandalay

BNI gives several reasons for the continued fighting, which include:
•    Competition for control of strategic and commercial interests
•    Government attempt to clamp down on economic activities by the ethnic armed organizations (EAOs)
•    Government attempt to wipe out the EAOs
•    Failure to adhere to agreements
•    Ineffective liaison offices

Sai Leik says he thinks he will be able to finish the report by the end of the month.

Update: 27 May 2015
The correct number of clashes is 242, not 428 as reported yesterday. Too much dependency on the calculator apologies for the oversight.